Conference tournament betting tip: Current ATS results indicate added value
Historically, public bettors tend to bet on teams that covered the spread and skip those that didn’t. It is human nature to believe that something will continue to happen because it happened in the past.
Actually, loudly Bet LabsSince 2005, teams that have covered at least three of their last five games have received the most spread tickets in 65.9% of regular season games when facing an opponent that has covered one or fewer of their last five games.
Oddsmakers understand these tendencies and shade their lines to force square bettors to accept bad numbers.
However, in the postseason, the team with recent strong ATS form only receives the majority of bets in 52.2% of games.
Why the change? Often the team that covers will be favored when facing an opponent that doesn’t, and recreational bettors would usually like to pick a cover favorite. But in the postseason, such as conference tournaments, the public is more likely to bet on the underdog, assuming the games become more competitive because teams are desperate to extend their seasons.
Once again, the oddsmakers know that this is a tendency of casual bettors in the postseason and that they increase the odds less than they would in regular season matches. This creates valuable bets for teams playing in conference tournaments against an opponent who has not done so.
Since 2005, teams with good current ATS form have gone 288-220-11 (56.7%) ATS when facing an opponent with poor current ATS form. A $100 bettor using this system would have made a profit of $5,358. Not only is this system simple, but it has been a consistent winner with an ATS record of .500 or better in 13 consecutive postseasons.
The system has already started the 2018-19 conference tournament 2-0 ATS and has two more games coming up on Thursday.
- Saint Peter’s (+2.5) vs. Marist (5:00 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
- Indiana State (-3) vs. Valparaiso (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
This article was originally published on ActionNetwork.com from John Ewing. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.
