NBA Betting Tip: Bet Overs after the All-Star Break
Last season, an average of 212.6 points were scored in NBA games. In the two days after the All-Star break, the average score jumped to 224.1 points. The increased scoring saw overs go 10-6-1 in these contests.
Was this a coincidence or is there a reason why the points were higher after the All-Star break?
My theory is that players are suffering from a holiday hangover after a week off. When NBA players don’t give 100 percent, it shows on the defensive end of the court. A lack of haste can result in more points being scored and overs being more profitable.
To test this idea I used this Bet Labs database to examine every game played in the first two days after the All-Star break since 2005. In the first game back from a team most likely to still be on the move, the over was 146-119-5 (55.1%). .
These are good results with a nice sample size, but betting on every over is not the optimal strategy.
There are 15 teams under .500 at halftime. Most of these teams have a chance of making the playoffs. Bad teams with nothing to offer create a perfect storm for bettors. The over, which pits two teams with losing records in the first two days after the All-Star break, is 50-24-1 (67.6%) since 2005.
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There will be five games on Thursday and Friday, pitting teams with losing records against each other. Over-bettors looking to get caught up in the holiday hangover should target these matchups:
- Cavaliers vs. Suns (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET)
- Hornets vs. Wizards (Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
- Magic vs. Bulls (Friday, 7 p.m. ET)
- Hawks vs. Pistons (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
This article was originally published on ActionNetwork.com from John Ewing. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.
