Is it actually profitable to bet overs in the NBA? Testing Bill Simmons’ theory
There are always more points in the NBA. Teams average 110.9 points per game, their highest since the 1984-85 season when they averaged 110.8 points. Increased speed and efficiency contribute to this.
Teams also average 100.1 possessions per 48 minutes, which ranks 16th in NBA history. Players have never scored as efficiently as they have this season. The league’s effective field goal percentage is .524, according to Basketball-Reference.
If you’re like Joe House, host of The Ringer’s House of Carbs podcast, you probably think that a higher score would result in a larger payout. On Monday’s episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, House and Simmons discussed scoring, and House was confident that bettors would have made a profit on every single game given the increase in points per game this season.
So to find out if House was right, I dove into ours Bet Labs database.
And his instinct was right: Over bettors have a winning record this season. But the winning percentage is not enough to overcome the juice.
The overs are 447-434-15 (50.7%) this season, meaning a $100 bettor would have a loss of $966 on the over bet in each game.
Overs started hot but the oddsmakers adjusted. In October, bettors failed to lose in overs with a record of 65-44-1 (59.6%). But since November, overs have only increased to 382-390-14 (49.5%).
Teams are scoring at an unprecedented rate, but bookmakers have increased the over/under values to reflect the high score.
I don’t recommend betting on every over, But there is a profitable strategy that bettors should pursue.
Since we started tracking money percentages in 2015 and 2016, it is smart to track line movements when there is more money than tickets in the account.
The over usually attracts the most tickets as public bettors like to hustle for points. If there is more money on the over and the limit increases, that is a sign that recreational bettors are betting not only on the over, but also on sharps. Getting on the same page as the pros is a smart way to build your credit.
This article was originally published on ActionNetwork.com from John Ewing. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.
